The Third Shift

Having observed the Iowa caucuses in good old Poweshiek County back in 2004 (had a California license at that point but was finishing up college), there’s a tangible reality there that crosses party lines and presents a very basic issue that Romney’s campaign can’t grasp and the candidate can’t overcome.

Caucus-goers are THE boots on the ground, GOTV-type folks — even more so than your usual primary participants, especially because the process is more open than filling out a primary ballot.  And Romney has a major gap with those people; they don’t want to buy it and he can’t sell them on it, and the further away you get from the urban centers of states, the worse he does.

Unless Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich can string together more victories in states where delegates are actually at stake, Romney will still be the nominee by a long shot. But Republican voters will be just as disillusioned with him as Democratic voters are with President Obama. The problem for the Republican electorate is that the alternatives they have in Santorum and Gingrich will be highly unpalatable to a very large swath of the population.